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What I’m seeing - Hugh Wade (Spire Commercial Real Estate Broker) - September 2023


Back in June, I talked about good times ahead, the prospect of a sustained, real mini-boom , a recognition that a lot of big factors were aligning. (Infrastructure money, telecom money, much bigger geo-political forces and the world geography of the North Pacific Ocean and the Arctic, national security, the expanding conversion to electric, Alaska’s place in all of this.)

Meanwhile, Ryan and I worked our rear-ends off all summer, but it was mostly on smaller lease stuff. The buy-sell transactions just weren’t there, and the several buyers weren’t quite there on pulling the trigger. The capital rate environment also has been tough, a big meta factor.

That’s changed. We got several properties under contract (not yet closed) to buy/sell in the past month.

Sometimes, it’s confirmation bias, but I guess I like to humor myself that what we are seeing now is what we were projecting earlier. It ties into my belief that there is a six-month discrepancy between what reality is and what sandbox players think reality is. And that those two perceptions or opinions interact and influence each other. But there’s a lag.

Anyway, tomorrow will change both our perception of the future and also how we should have felt in times past, even just months ago. Projections, and history, and analysis of both, are malleable and can’t really be nailed down. And I am diehard believer that we should always be trying anyway.


-Hugh

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